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常見問題
今年以來，順酐市場一路震蕩走低，在階段性供需失衡加劇下，終以14.52%的跌幅交出上半年成績單。在一路走低的背景下，曾經(jīng)的“高利潤”光環(huán)褪去，企業(yè)噸產(chǎn)品利潤從萬元下滑虧損邊緣。
Since the beginning of this year, the price of maleic anhydride in the market has been fluctuating downwards, and under the worsening of the supply-demand imbalance, it finally delivered a 14.52% decline in the first half of the year. Against the backdrop of continuously declining prices, the once "high profit" halo has faded, and the profit per ton of products for enterprises has declined from tens of thousands of yuan to the brink of loss.
遼寧順酐經(jīng)銷商陸通：需求疲弱跌幅達(dá)14.52%
Liaoning maleic anhydride distributor Lutong: Weak demand leads to a 14.52% decline
上半年，國內(nèi)順酐市場均價以1.22萬元(噸價，下同)起步后，經(jīng)過幾次震蕩，終以1.04萬元收官。其中，高點出現(xiàn)在2月17日，為1.42萬元；低點出現(xiàn)在5月11日，為1.02萬元。
In the first half of the year, the average price of domestic maleic anhydride market started at 12200 yuan (ton price, the same below), and after several fluctuations, it finally closed at 10400 yuan. Among them, the high point appeared on February 17th, at 14200 yuan; The low point appeared on May 11th, at 10200 yuan.
回顧上半年的順酐市場走勢，大致可以劃分為3個階段。
Looking back at the market trend of maleic anhydride in the first half of the year, it can be roughly divided into three stages.
階段從年初2月中旬。順酐市場緩慢下行，從1.2萬元線上跌1.14萬元左右。1月12日，順酐一度跌1.08萬元的階段性低點，之后緩慢回升。
The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid February. The market for maleic anhydride is slowly declining, with prices dropping from around 12000 yuan to around 11400 yuan. On January 12th, the price of maleic anhydride fell to a temporary low of 10800 yuan, and then slowly rebounded.
第二階段從2月上旬5月上旬。在這3個月的時間里，順酐市場呈現(xiàn)幾次大幅震蕩走勢，階段跌幅達(dá)到15.75%。2月9日，順酐從1.21萬元開始震蕩上行，一直到2月17日達(dá)到上半年高點1.42萬元。在此價位盤旋3日后調(diào)頭向下，之后經(jīng)歷4次大幅震蕩于5月11日下跌上半年點1.02萬元。在此期間，順酐市場均價振幅達(dá)到39.34%。
The second stage is from early February to early May. During these three months, the maleic anhydride market experienced several significant fluctuations, with a stage decline of 15.75%. On February 9th, the price of maleic anhydride began to fluctuate upwards from 12100 yuan and reached a high of 14200 yuan in the first half of the year on February 17th. After hovering at this price for three days, it turned downward, and then experienced four sharp shocks, falling to the lowest point of 10200 yuan in the first half of the year on May 11. During this period, the maximum amplitude of the average market price of maleic anhydride reached 39.34%.
第三階段從5月中旬6月30日。順酐從1.02萬元線上緩慢回升，終以1.04萬元收官。在此期間，順酐始終在萬元線上小幅震蕩，總體微漲約2.3%。
The third stage is from mid May to June 30th. The price of maleic anhydride slowly rebounded from the 10200 yuan line and finally closed at 10400 yuan. During this period, the price of maleic anhydride remained slightly fluctuating above the 10000 yuan line, with an overall slight increase of about 2.3%.
總體來看，導(dǎo)致順酐市場震蕩走低的主要因素是需求疲弱。上半年，順酐下游不飽和樹脂市場表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)不及預(yù)期，企業(yè)間歇性處于累庫狀態(tài)，導(dǎo)致順酐市場供需矛盾逐漸加大、下跌。
Overall, the main factor causing the volatile decline in the maleic anhydride market is weak demand. In the first half of the year, the performance of the downstream unsaturated resin market for maleic anhydride fell far short of expectations, and production enterprises were intermittently accumulating inventory, leading to an increasing supply-demand imbalance and price decline in the maleic anhydride market.
卓創(chuàng)資訊分析師李通：從盈利近萬元到面臨虧損
Zhuochuang Information Analyst Li Tong: From a profit of nearly 10000 yuan to facing losses
2021年順酐行業(yè)迎來高光時刻，產(chǎn)品及行業(yè)盈利水平均創(chuàng)下歷史新高。但2022年以來順酐行業(yè)景氣度急轉(zhuǎn)直下，成本上漲及產(chǎn)品下跌引發(fā)企業(yè)利潤大幅度縮水。高成本的苯法順酐企業(yè)率先陷入虧損，且虧損幅度不斷擴(kuò)大。隨后，相對低成本的正丁烷法順酐企業(yè)也在5月初臨近虧損狀態(tài)。
In 2021, the maleic anhydride industry ushered in a shining moment, with product prices and industry profitability reaching historic highs. However, since 2022, the prosperity of the maleic anhydride industry has sharply declined, with rising costs and falling product prices leading to a significant reduction in corporate profits. The high cost benzene maleic anhydride enterprise was the first to suffer losses, and the extent of the losses continued to expand. Subsequently, relatively low-cost n-butane based maleic anhydride companies also approached a loss making state in early May.
這與順酐市場供需關(guān)系悄然生變有關(guān)。從供應(yīng)來看，2021年12月2022年5月，廣東惠州宇新新材料15萬噸/年、山東齊翔騰達(dá)10萬噸/年裝置先后投產(chǎn)，并在短時間內(nèi)實現(xiàn)高負(fù)荷運行，加之部分裝置檢修計劃推遲，造成順酐產(chǎn)量迅速增長。
This is related to the quietly changing supply-demand relationship in the maleic anhydride market. In terms of supply, from December 2021 to May 2022, the 150000 ton/year Yuxin New Materials plant in Huizhou, Guangdong and the 100000 ton/year plant in Qixiang Tengda, Shandong were successively put into operation and achieved high load operation in a short period of time. In addition, some production plant maintenance plans were postponed, resulting in a rapid increase in maleic anhydride production.
而需求端增長卻不樂觀。雖然不飽和樹脂產(chǎn)能保持增勢，但終端房地產(chǎn)市場景氣度大幅回落，人造石材、家居涂料等制品需求遇冷，疊加華東等不飽和樹脂主產(chǎn)區(qū)自3月以來遭遇突發(fā)事件沖擊，行業(yè)開工率受到抑制，導(dǎo)致原料順酐需求下滑。
However, the demand side growth is not optimistic. Although the production capacity of unsaturated resins continues to increase, the prosperity of the terminal real estate market has significantly declined, and the demand for products such as artificial stone and home coatings has cooled down. In addition, major unsaturated resin producing areas such as East China have been hit by unexpected events since March, which has suppressed the industry's operating rate and led to a decline in demand for raw material maleic anhydride.
供應(yīng)增長遭遇需求下滑，導(dǎo)致順酐市場下跌。加之成本不斷攀升進(jìn)一步侵蝕了順酐行業(yè)利潤空間，并逐步走向虧損邊緣。
Supply growth has encountered a decline in demand, resulting in a decrease in the market price of maleic anhydride. In addition, the continuous rise in costs has further eroded the profit margin of the maleic anhydride industry and gradually moved towards the edge of losses.
金聯(lián)創(chuàng)化工分析師楊廣智：利潤或仍將低位徘徊
Yang Guangzhi, analyst at Jinlianchuang Chemical: Profit may still hover at a low level
2022年順酐新產(chǎn)能逐漸進(jìn)入集中釋放期，而下游新產(chǎn)能釋放緩慢，傳統(tǒng)下游又受房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)低迷影響需求乏力。從下半年市場預(yù)期來看，丁烷法順酐企業(yè)利潤將處于低位，而苯法順酐企業(yè)長期也難有盈利。
In 2022, the new production capacity of maleic anhydride gradually entered a period of concentrated release, while the release of downstream new production capacity was slow, and traditional downstream demand was weak due to the sluggish real estate industry. From the market expectation in the second half of the year, the profit of butane based maleic anhydride enterprises will be at a low level, while benzene based maleic anhydride enterprises will also have difficulty making profits in the long term.
供應(yīng)方面，近期齊翔騰達(dá)20萬噸/年順酐項目二期線貫通，并產(chǎn)出合格產(chǎn)品。二期項目投產(chǎn)后，該公司順酐產(chǎn)能將超40萬噸/年。同時，其他中小產(chǎn)能也有新增投入預(yù)期，順酐供應(yīng)過剩壓力仍然較大。
In terms of supply, the second phase production line of Qixiang Tengda's 200000 tons/year maleic anhydride project has been completed recently, and qualified products have been produced. After the second phase project is put into operation, the company's maleic anhydride production capacity will exceed 400000 tons per year. At the same time, other small and medium-sized production capacities are also expected to increase investment, and the pressure of excess supply of maleic anhydride is still significant.
需求方面，受疫情反復(fù)以及傳統(tǒng)下游房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)景氣度低影響，下半年需求修復(fù)力度預(yù)期不大，黃金旺季亦難以比肩去年同期。在5~8月傳統(tǒng)需求淡季結(jié)束后，預(yù)計9~11月內(nèi)順酐會出現(xiàn)一波強(qiáng)勢行情，但難以觸及去年同期的中高價位。新興下游順酐制1，4-丁二醇及丁二酸項目產(chǎn)能釋放緩慢，年內(nèi)難以帶動順酐需求大增。
In terms of demand, due to the fluctuation of the epidemic and the low prosperity of the traditional downstream real estate industry, the expected demand recovery in the second half of the year is not strong, and the peak season is also difficult to compare with the same period last year. After the traditional off-season of demand ends from May to August, it is expected that there will be a strong market for maleic anhydride from September to November, but it will be difficult to reach the mid to high price of the same period last year. The capacity release of the emerging downstream projects for producing 1,4-butanediol and succinic acid from maleic anhydride is slow, making it difficult to drive a significant increase in demand for maleic anhydride within the year.
在原料預(yù)期高位的情況下，順酐企業(yè)年內(nèi)綜合盈利對比去年將會大幅縮水。對于正丁烷順酐企業(yè)，由于原料價位相對偏低，壓力不明顯，預(yù)計其利潤多在500~1500元震蕩。而苯法順酐企業(yè)，在原油居高的背景下，純苯回落存有難度，預(yù)計企業(yè)仍將長期虧損。
In the context of high expectations for raw materials, the comprehensive profit of maleic anhydride enterprises this year will significantly shrink compared to last year. For n-butane maleic anhydride enterprises, due to relatively low raw material prices and insignificant production pressure, it is expected that their profits will fluctuate between 500 and 1500 yuan. However, in the context of high crude oil prices, it is difficult for pure benzene prices to fall for benzene based maleic anhydride enterprises, and it is expected that the production enterprises will continue to suffer long-term losses.
后續(xù)順酐市場主要關(guān)注點仍是國內(nèi)疫情、終端房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)以及宏觀政策面的變化情況。
The main focus of the follow-up maleic anhydride market is still on the domestic epidemic, the terminal real estate industry, and changes in macro policies.
本文由 順酐廠家 友情奉獻(xiàn).更多有關(guān)的知識請點擊 http://m.am9k.com/ 真誠的態(tài)度.為您提供為的服務(wù).更多有關(guān)的知識我們將會陸續(xù)向大家奉獻(xiàn).敬請期待.
This article is a friendly contribution from a manufacturer of maleic anhydride For more related knowledge, please click http://m.am9k.com/ Sincere attitude To provide you with comprehensive services We will gradually contribute more relevant knowledge to everyone Coming soon.